Indian Elections 2019
Between April 11th and May 19th of 2019, more than 67% of 900 million Indian citizens cast their vote for 542 members of Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament. Tomorrow morning 8 am, the vote counting will commence and reveal if the alliance led by the incumbent BJP can hold its majority or whether the Indian National Congress and its opposition allies will improve on their dismal 2014 showing.
In a small number of states, the main contest is between regional parties—and not the BJP and Congress. These include the DMK and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, the TDP and YSR in Andhra Pradesh, the TRS in Telangana and a regional alliance led by the SP and BSP in Uttar Pradesh.
With the official results of the world's biggest democratic exercise just a few hours away, which factors could prove decisive?
1. Uttar Pradesh: UP sends more MPs to the Parliament than any other state in India. That is the reason why one needs to watch what happens in UP.
2. Modi Vs. Banerjee: Modi's BJP won just two of 42 seats in West Bengal in 2014, and the rivalry between Modi and the state's chief minister, Mamata Banerjee, has been explosive. If the BJP is to retain its grip on power, it will need to improve its performance in Bengal.
3. Congress Performance: Assembly elections in December 2018 saw the resurgence of Congress, the party led by Rahul Gandhi. Congress formed majorities in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in the assembly elections last year. These states account for 65 seats out of the total 543 contested and hence, Gandhi campaigned hard in the states ahead of the general elections.
4. Voting Machine Controversy: On Wednesday, the Election Commission of India (ECI) rejected the demand by 22 political parties seeking 100 percent matching of Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) slips with EVMs during the counting of votes on May 23rd. The petitions came after several videos went viral on social media platforms showing EVMs being transported in private vehicles, with opposition parties alleging irregularities. So, there could be attempts to trigger violence during the counting of votes tomorrow for the Lok Sabha elections, the Home Ministry warned today, sending out alerts to chief secretaries and police chiefs of all states and UTs. Special attention is being given to the states of West Bengal, Tripura, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh. The Director-General of Police in these states has been given special instructions. A special room is being set up in North Block which is the control room to keep an eye on the election results and the ground law and order situation.
5. Market Reaction: The slew of exit polls suggesting a victory for Modi saw Indian markets jump and the rupee strengthened against the U.S. dollar. The reaction to the official results will be closely watched by financial analysts, given the array of economic problems the incoming government will face. The economy is cooling and unemployment is at a 45-year high, while both main parties have made big spending pledges.
6. Women voted in record numbers: For the first time, more women than men cast their votes in the Indian elections. Personal safety is the biggest concern for women voters in India, a survey found out.
On a lighter note, for the armchair activists and other concerned Indians in the U.S. chewing on their nails, waiting for the election results, here is an entertaining vignette to stretch their tense mouths into a relaxed smile:
Desis have gone an extra mile out to vicariously participate in the political circus this year. Election results watch parties have been organized in Texas, Illinois, Massachusetts, Florida, Washington DC, Virginia, California, and other states. While a lot of these parties are being hosted at homes, restaurants, and clubhouses, in Minneapolis a movie theatre has been booked solely for this purpose. The screen will be hit with six to eight news channels airing election results from India, all together. An IT professional has organized what is being called America’s first cinema-hall watch party for an Indian election.
What fun!
